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Dec 9

Symbolic Mixture-of-Experts: Adaptive Skill-based Routing for Heterogeneous Reasoning

Combining existing pre-trained expert LLMs is a promising avenue for scalably tackling large-scale and diverse tasks. However, selecting experts at the task level is often too coarse-grained, as heterogeneous tasks may require different expertise for each instance. To enable adaptive instance-level mixing of pre-trained LLM experts, we propose Symbolic-MoE, a symbolic, text-based, and gradient-free Mixture-of-Experts framework. Symbolic-MoE takes a fine-grained approach to selection by emphasizing skills, e.g., algebra in math or molecular biology in biomedical reasoning. We propose a skill-based recruiting strategy that dynamically selects the most relevant set of expert LLMs for diverse reasoning tasks based on their strengths. Each selected expert then generates its own reasoning, resulting in k outputs from k experts, which are then synthesized into a final high-quality response by an aggregator chosen based on its ability to integrate diverse reasoning outputs. We show that Symbolic-MoE's instance-level expert selection improves performance by a large margin but -- when implemented naively -- can introduce a high computational overhead due to the need for constant model loading and offloading. To address this, we implement a batch inference strategy that groups instances based on their assigned experts, loading each model only once. This allows us to integrate 16 expert models on 1 GPU with a time cost comparable to or better than prior multi-agent baselines using 4 GPUs. Through extensive evaluations on diverse benchmarks (MMLU-Pro, GPQA, AIME, and MedMCQA), we demonstrate that Symbolic-MoE outperforms strong LLMs like GPT4o-mini, as well as multi-agent approaches, with an absolute average improvement of 8.15% over the best multi-agent baseline. Moreover, Symbolic-MoE removes the need for expensive multi-round discussions, outperforming discussion baselines with less computation.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 7 2

Toward a traceable, explainable, and fairJD/Resume recommendation system

In the last few decades, companies are interested to adopt an online automated recruitment process in an international recruitment environment. The problem is that the recruitment of employees through the manual procedure is a time and money consuming process. As a result, processing a significant number of applications through conventional methods can lead to the recruitment of clumsy individuals. Different JD/Resume matching model architectures have been proposed and reveal a high accuracy level in selecting relevant candidatesfor the required job positions. However, the development of an automatic recruitment system is still one of the main challenges. The reason is that the development of a fully automated recruitment system is a difficult task and poses different challenges. For example, providing a detailed matching explanation for the targeted stakeholders is needed to ensure a transparent recommendation. There are several knowledge bases that represent skills and competencies (e.g, ESCO, O*NET) that are used to identify the candidate and the required job skills for a matching purpose. Besides, modernpre-trained language models are fine-tuned for this context such as identifying lines where a specific feature was introduced. Typically, pre-trained language models use transfer-based machine learning models to be fine-tuned for a specific field. In this proposal, our aim is to explore how modern language models (based on transformers) can be combined with knowledge bases and ontologies to enhance the JD/Resume matching process. Our system aims at using knowledge bases and features to support the explainability of the JD/Resume matching. Finally, given that multiple software components, datasets, ontology, andmachine learning models will be explored, we aim at proposing a fair, ex-plainable, and traceable architecture for a Resume/JD matching purpose.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 2, 2022

Job-SDF: A Multi-Granularity Dataset for Job Skill Demand Forecasting and Benchmarking

In a rapidly evolving job market, skill demand forecasting is crucial as it enables policymakers and businesses to anticipate and adapt to changes, ensuring that workforce skills align with market needs, thereby enhancing productivity and competitiveness. Additionally, by identifying emerging skill requirements, it directs individuals towards relevant training and education opportunities, promoting continuous self-learning and development. However, the absence of comprehensive datasets presents a significant challenge, impeding research and the advancement of this field. To bridge this gap, we present Job-SDF, a dataset designed to train and benchmark job-skill demand forecasting models. Based on 10.35 million public job advertisements collected from major online recruitment platforms in China between 2021 and 2023, this dataset encompasses monthly recruitment demand for 2,324 types of skills across 521 companies. Our dataset uniquely enables evaluating skill demand forecasting models at various granularities, including occupation, company, and regional levels. We benchmark a range of models on this dataset, evaluating their performance in standard scenarios, in predictions focused on lower value ranges, and in the presence of structural breaks, providing new insights for further research. Our code and dataset are publicly accessible via the https://github.com/Job-SDF/benchmark.

  • 8 authors
·
Jun 17, 2024

A Mathematical Framework for Custom Reward Functions in Job Application Evaluation using Reinforcement Learning

Conventional Applicant Tracking Systems (ATS) tend to be inflexible keyword-matchers, and deny gifted candidates a role due to a few minor semantic mismatches. This article describes a new two-step process to design a more refined resume evaluation model based on a small language model (<600M parameters) that is finetuned using GRPO on a custom reward function. To begin with, Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) was used to build a solid baseline model. Second, this SFT model was also optimized with the help of Reinforcement Learning (RL) through GRPO under the guidance of a new, multi-component reward function that can holistically assess candidates beyond simple keyword matching. We indicate that the RL application presents a critical problem of reward hacking due to the initial experiments of aggressive penalties, which produces faulty, excessively negative model behaviors. We have overcome this challenge by refining the reward function repeatedly and training hyperparameters into a stable "gentle polishing process" of the reward function. Our resulting GRPO-polished model demonstrates significant real-world efficacy, achieving a final accuracy of 91% on unseen test data. The model shows a strong ability to correctly identify qualified candidates (recall of 0.85 for the 'SELECTED' class) while also showing exceptional precision (1.0), confirming its reliability. These results indicate that a properly executed, two-step fine-tuning procedure can indeed effectively refine a small language model to be able to conduct fine-tuned and human-like candidate scoring, overcoming the drawbacks of both traditional ATS and naive RL usage.

  • 7 authors
·
Nov 20

Design of Negative Sampling Strategies for Distantly Supervised Skill Extraction

Skills play a central role in the job market and many human resources (HR) processes. In the wake of other digital experiences, today's online job market has candidates expecting to see the right opportunities based on their skill set. Similarly, enterprises increasingly need to use data to guarantee that the skills within their workforce remain future-proof. However, structured information about skills is often missing, and processes building on self- or manager-assessment have shown to struggle with issues around adoption, completeness, and freshness of the resulting data. Extracting skills is a highly challenging task, given the many thousands of possible skill labels mentioned either explicitly or merely described implicitly and the lack of finely annotated training corpora. Previous work on skill extraction overly simplifies the task to an explicit entity detection task or builds on manually annotated training data that would be infeasible if applied to a complete vocabulary of skills. We propose an end-to-end system for skill extraction, based on distant supervision through literal matching. We propose and evaluate several negative sampling strategies, tuned on a small validation dataset, to improve the generalization of skill extraction towards implicitly mentioned skills, despite the lack of such implicit skills in the distantly supervised data. We observe that using the ESCO taxonomy to select negative examples from related skills yields the biggest improvements, and combining three different strategies in one model further increases the performance, up to 8 percentage points in RP@5. We introduce a manually annotated evaluation benchmark for skill extraction based on the ESCO taxonomy, on which we validate our models. We release the benchmark dataset for research purposes to stimulate further research on the task.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 13, 2022

Application of LLM Agents in Recruitment: A Novel Framework for Resume Screening

The automation of resume screening is a crucial aspect of the recruitment process in organizations. Automated resume screening systems often encompass a range of natural language processing (NLP) tasks. The advent of Large Language Models (LLMs) has notably enhanced the efficacy of these systems, showcasing their robust generalization abilities across diverse language-related tasks. Accompanying these developments are various agents based on LLMs, which facilitate their application in practical scenarios. This paper introduces a novel LLM-based agent framework for resume screening, aimed at enhancing efficiency and time management in recruitment processes. Our framework is distinct in its ability to efficiently summarize and grade each resume from a large dataset. Moreover, it utilizes LLM agents for decision-making, determining which candidates receive job offers, or which ones to bring in for interviews. To evaluate our framework, we constructed a dataset from actual resumes and conducted simulate a resume screening process. Subsequently, the outcomes of the simulation experiment were compared and subjected to detailed analysis. The results demonstrate that our automated resume screening framework is 11 times faster than traditional manual methods. Furthermore, by fine-tuning the LLMs, we observed a significant improvement in the F1 score, reaching 87.73\%, during the resume sentence classification phase. In the resume summarization and grading phase, our fine-tuned model surpassed the baseline performance of the GPT-3.5 model. Analysis of the decision-making efficacy of the LLM agents in the final offer stage further underscores the potential of LLM agents in transforming resume screening processes.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 16, 2024

VacancySBERT: the approach for representation of titles and skills for semantic similarity search in the recruitment domain

The paper focuses on deep learning semantic search algorithms applied in the HR domain. The aim of the article is developing a novel approach to training a Siamese network to link the skills mentioned in the job ad with the title. It has been shown that the title normalization process can be based either on classification or similarity comparison approaches. While classification algorithms strive to classify a sample into predefined set of categories, similarity search algorithms take a more flexible approach, since they are designed to find samples that are similar to a given query sample, without requiring pre-defined classes and labels. In this article semantic similarity search to find candidates for title normalization has been used. A pre-trained language model has been adapted while teaching it to match titles and skills based on co-occurrence information. For the purpose of this research fifty billion title-descriptions pairs had been collected for training the model and thirty three thousand title-description-normalized title triplets, where normalized job title was picked up manually by job ad creator for testing purposes. As baselines FastText, BERT, SentenceBert and JobBert have been used. As a metric of the accuracy of the designed algorithm is Recall in top one, five and ten model's suggestions. It has been shown that the novel training objective lets it achieve significant improvement in comparison to other generic and specific text encoders. Two settings with treating titles as standalone strings, and with included skills as additional features during inference have been used and the results have been compared in this article. Improvements by 10% and 21.5% have been achieved using VacancySBERT and VacancySBERT (with skills) respectively. The benchmark has been developed as open-source to foster further research in the area.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 31, 2023

Mastering Multi-Drone Volleyball through Hierarchical Co-Self-Play Reinforcement Learning

In this paper, we tackle the problem of learning to play 3v3 multi-drone volleyball, a new embodied competitive task that requires both high-level strategic coordination and low-level agile control. The task is turn-based, multi-agent, and physically grounded, posing significant challenges due to its long-horizon dependencies, tight inter-agent coupling, and the underactuated dynamics of quadrotors. To address this, we propose Hierarchical Co-Self-Play (HCSP), a hierarchical reinforcement learning framework that separates centralized high-level strategic decision-making from decentralized low-level motion control. We design a three-stage population-based training pipeline to enable both strategy and skill to emerge from scratch without expert demonstrations: (I) training diverse low-level skills, (II) learning high-level strategy via self-play with fixed low-level skills, and (III) joint fine-tuning through co-self-play. Experiments show that HCSP achieves superior performance, outperforming non-hierarchical self-play and rule-based hierarchical baselines with an average 82.9% win rate and a 71.5% win rate against the two-stage variant. Moreover, co-self-play leads to emergent team behaviors such as role switching and coordinated formations, demonstrating the effectiveness of our hierarchical design and training scheme. The project page is at https://sites.google.com/view/hi-co-self-play.

  • 9 authors
·
May 7

Language Models Improve When Pretraining Data Matches Target Tasks

Every data selection method inherently has a target. In practice, these targets often emerge implicitly through benchmark-driven iteration: researchers develop selection strategies, train models, measure benchmark performance, then refine accordingly. This raises a natural question: what happens when we make this optimization explicit? To explore this, we propose benchmark-targeted ranking (BETR), a simple method that selects pretraining documents based on similarity to benchmark training examples. BETR embeds benchmark examples and a sample of pretraining documents in a shared space, scores this sample by similarity to benchmarks, then trains a lightweight classifier to predict these scores for the full corpus. We compare data selection methods by training over 500 models spanning 10^{19} to 10^{22} FLOPs and fitting scaling laws to them. From this, we find that simply aligning pretraining data to evaluation benchmarks using BETR achieves a 2.1x compute multiplier over DCLM-Baseline (4.7x over unfiltered data) and improves performance on 9 out of 10 tasks across all scales. BETR also generalizes well: when targeting a diverse set of benchmarks disjoint from our evaluation suite, it still matches or outperforms baselines. Our scaling analysis further reveals a clear trend: larger models require less aggressive filtering. Overall, our findings show that directly matching pretraining data to target tasks precisely shapes model capabilities and highlight that optimal selection strategies must adapt to model scale.

  • 10 authors
·
Jul 16

Scalable and Equitable Math Problem Solving Strategy Prediction in Big Educational Data

Understanding a student's problem-solving strategy can have a significant impact on effective math learning using Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs) and Adaptive Instructional Systems (AISs). For instance, the ITS/AIS can better personalize itself to correct specific misconceptions that are indicated by incorrect strategies, specific problems can be designed to improve strategies and frustration can be minimized by adapting to a student's natural way of thinking rather than trying to fit a standard strategy for all. While it may be possible for human experts to identify strategies manually in classroom settings with sufficient student interaction, it is not possible to scale this up to big data. Therefore, we leverage advances in Machine Learning and AI methods to perform scalable strategy prediction that is also fair to students at all skill levels. Specifically, we develop an embedding called MVec where we learn a representation based on the mastery of students. We then cluster these embeddings with a non-parametric clustering method where we progressively learn clusters such that we group together instances that have approximately symmetrical strategies. The strategy prediction model is trained on instances sampled from these clusters. This ensures that we train the model over diverse strategies and also that strategies from a particular group do not bias the DNN model, thus allowing it to optimize its parameters over all groups. Using real world large-scale student interaction datasets from MATHia, we implement our approach using transformers and Node2Vec for learning the mastery embeddings and LSTMs for predicting strategies. We show that our approach can scale up to achieve high accuracy by training on a small sample of a large dataset and also has predictive equality, i.e., it can predict strategies equally well for learners at diverse skill levels.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 7, 2023

RecruitView: A Multimodal Dataset for Predicting Personality and Interview Performance for Human Resources Applications

Automated personality and soft skill assessment from multimodal behavioral data remains challenging due to limited datasets and methods that fail to capture geometric structure inherent in human traits. We introduce RecruitView, a dataset of 2,011 naturalistic video interview clips from 300+ participants with 27,000 pairwise comparative judgments across 12 dimensions: Big Five personality traits, overall personality score, and six interview performance metrics. To leverage this data, we propose Cross-Modal Regression with Manifold Fusion (CRMF), a geometric deep learning framework that explicitly models behavioral representations across hyperbolic, spherical, and Euclidean manifolds. CRMF employs geometry-specific expert networks to capture hierarchical trait structures, directional behavioral patterns, and continuous performance variations simultaneously. An adaptive routing mechanism dynamically weights expert contributions based on input characteristics. Through principled tangent space fusion, CRMF achieves superior performance while training 40-50% fewer trainable parameters than large multimodal models. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CRMF substantially outperforms the selected baselines, achieving up to 11.4% improvement in Spearman correlation and 6.0% in concordance index. Our RecruitView dataset is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/AI4A-lab/RecruitView

  • 8 authors
·
Nov 29

LABOR-LLM: Language-Based Occupational Representations with Large Language Models

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 25, 2024

Skill-Mix: a Flexible and Expandable Family of Evaluations for AI models

With LLMs shifting their role from statistical modeling of language to serving as general-purpose AI agents, how should LLM evaluations change? Arguably, a key ability of an AI agent is to flexibly combine, as needed, the basic skills it has learned. The capability to combine skills plays an important role in (human) pedagogy and also in a paper on emergence phenomena (Arora & Goyal, 2023). This work introduces Skill-Mix, a new evaluation to measure ability to combine skills. Using a list of N skills the evaluator repeatedly picks random subsets of k skills and asks the LLM to produce text combining that subset of skills. Since the number of subsets grows like N^k, for even modest k this evaluation will, with high probability, require the LLM to produce text significantly different from any text in the training set. The paper develops a methodology for (a) designing and administering such an evaluation, and (b) automatic grading (plus spot-checking by humans) of the results using GPT-4 as well as the open LLaMA-2 70B model. Administering a version of to popular chatbots gave results that, while generally in line with prior expectations, contained surprises. Sizeable differences exist among model capabilities that are not captured by their ranking on popular LLM leaderboards ("cramming for the leaderboard"). Furthermore, simple probability calculations indicate that GPT-4's reasonable performance on k=5 is suggestive of going beyond "stochastic parrot" behavior (Bender et al., 2021), i.e., it combines skills in ways that it had not seen during training. We sketch how the methodology can lead to a Skill-Mix based eco-system of open evaluations for AI capabilities of future models.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 26, 2023

StyleBench: Evaluating thinking styles in Large Language Models

The effectiveness of Large Language Models (LLMs) is heavily influenced by the reasoning strategies, or styles of thought, employed in their prompts. However, the interplay between these reasoning styles, model architecture, and task type remains poorly understood. To address this, we introduce StyleBench, a comprehensive benchmark for systematically evaluating reasoning styles across diverse tasks and models. We assess five representative reasoning styles, including Chain of Thought (CoT), Tree of Thought (ToT), Algorithm of Thought (AoT), Sketch of Thought (SoT), and Chain-of-Draft (CoD) on five reasoning tasks, using 15 open-source models from major families (LLaMA, Qwen, Mistral, Gemma, GPT-OSS, Phi, and DeepSeek) ranging from 270M to 120B parameters. Our large-scale analysis reveals that no single style is universally optimal. We demonstrate that strategy efficacy is highly contingent on both model scale and task type: search-based methods (AoT, ToT) excel in open-ended problems but require large-scale models, while concise styles (SoT, CoD) achieve radical efficiency gains on well-defined tasks. Furthermore, we identify key behavioral patterns: smaller models frequently fail to follow output instructions and default to guessing, while reasoning robustness emerges as a function of scale. Our findings offer a crucial roadmap for selecting optimal reasoning strategies based on specific constraints, we open source the benchmark in https://github.com/JamesJunyuGuo/Style_Bench.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 25 2

Skill-Targeted Adaptive Training

Language models often show little to no improvement (i.e., "saturation") when trained via vanilla supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on data similar to what they saw in their training set (e.g., MATH). We introduce a new fine-tuning strategy, STAT, to train such a student model by using the metacognition ability of a stronger large language model (LLM) as the teacher. The teacher uses the task dataset to create a list of skills needed for the task, and then labels each data point with its required skills (Didolkar et al., 2024). By monitoring the student's answers, the teacher creates a Missing-Skill-Profile for the student, tracking how often they failed to apply each skill in their responses. We use this idea to build a modified training set in one of two ways. In STAT-Sel, the teacher uses an existing set of training examples but adaptively reweights them according to the Missing-Skill-Profile. In STAT-Syn, the teacher synthesizes additional examples involving missing skills. Across extensive experiments on Llama and Qwen models, our methods yield improvements of up to 7.5% on MATH, whereas SFT provides only limited gains. Furthermore, STAT enhances performance on out-of-distribution benchmarks (e.g., AIME24/25, AMC23, etc.) by an average of 4.6%. Crucially, we find that STAT is complementary to RL via GRPO (Shao et al., 2024): after the model is improved using STAT to address skill gaps, GRPO continues to add further gains. We conclude that skill-targeted adaptive training should broadly improve current training pipelines. Our code is available at: https://github.com/princeton-pli/STAT.

Hallucinations or Attention Misdirection? The Path to Strategic Value Extraction in Business Using Large Language Models

Large Language Models with transformer architecture have revolutionized the domain of text generation, setting unprecedented benchmarks. Despite their impressive capabilities, LLMs have been criticized for generating outcomes that deviate from factual accuracy or display logical inconsistencies, phenomena commonly referred to as hallucinations. This term, however, has often been misapplied to any results deviating from the instructor's expectations, which this paper defines as attention misdirection rather than true hallucinations. Understanding the distinction between hallucinations and attention misdirection becomes increasingly relevant in business contexts, where the ramifications of such errors can significantly impact the value extraction from these inherently pre-trained models. This paper highlights the best practices of the PGI, Persona, Grouping, and Intelligence, method, a strategic framework that achieved a remarkable error rate of only 3,15 percent across 4,000 responses generated by GPT in response to a real business challenge. It emphasizes that by equipping experimentation with knowledge, businesses can unlock opportunities for innovation through the use of these natively pre-trained models. This reinforces the notion that strategic application grounded in a skilled team can maximize the benefits of emergent technologies such as the LLMs.

  • 1 authors
·
Feb 21, 2024

aiSTROM -- A roadmap for developing a successful AI strategy

A total of 34% of AI research and development projects fails or are abandoned, according to a recent survey by Rackspace Technology of 1,870 companies. We propose a new strategic framework, aiSTROM, that empowers managers to create a successful AI strategy based on a thorough literature review. This provides a unique and integrated approach that guides managers and lead developers through the various challenges in the implementation process. In the aiSTROM framework, we start by identifying the top n potential projects (typically 3-5). For each of those, seven areas of focus are thoroughly analysed. These areas include creating a data strategy that takes into account unique cross-departmental machine learning data requirements, security, and legal requirements. aiSTROM then guides managers to think about how to put together an interdisciplinary artificial intelligence (AI) implementation team given the scarcity of AI talent. Once an AI team strategy has been established, it needs to be positioned within the organization, either cross-departmental or as a separate division. Other considerations include AI as a service (AIaas), or outsourcing development. Looking at new technologies, we have to consider challenges such as bias, legality of black-box-models, and keeping humans in the loop. Next, like any project, we need value-based key performance indicators (KPIs) to track and validate the progress. Depending on the company's risk-strategy, a SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) can help further classify the shortlisted projects. Finally, we should make sure that our strategy includes continuous education of employees to enable a culture of adoption. This unique and comprehensive framework offers a valuable, literature supported, tool for managers and lead developers.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 25, 2021

Instruct-SkillMix: A Powerful Pipeline for LLM Instruction Tuning

We introduce Instruct-SkillMix, an automated approach for creating diverse, high quality SFT data. The Instruct-SkillMix pipeline involves two stages, each leveraging an existing powerful LLM: (1) Skill extraction: uses the LLM to extract core "skills" for instruction-following, either from existing datasets, or by directly prompting the model; (2) Data generation: uses the powerful LLM to generate (instruction, response) data that exhibit a randomly chosen pair of these skills. Here, the use of random skill combinations promotes diversity and difficulty. Vanilla SFT (i.e., no PPO, DPO, or RL methods) on data generated from Instruct-SkillMix leads to strong gains on instruction following benchmarks such as AlpacaEval 2.0, MT-Bench, and WildBench. With just 4K examples, LLaMA-3-8B-Base achieves 42.76% length-controlled win rate on AlpacaEval 2.0. To our knowledge, this achieves state-of-the-art performance among all models that have only undergone SFT (no RL methods) and competes with proprietary models such as Claude 3 Opus and LLaMA-3.1-405B-Instruct. Ablation studies also suggest plausible reasons for why creating open instruction-tuning datasets via naive crowd-sourcing has proved difficult. Introducing low quality answers ("shirkers") in 20% of Instruct-SkillMix examples causes performance to plummet, sometimes catastrophically. The Instruct-SkillMix pipeline is flexible and is adaptable to other settings.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 27, 2024

Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is: Evaluating Strategic Planning and Execution of LLM Agents in an Auction Arena

Can Large Language Models (LLMs) simulate human behavior in complex environments? LLMs have recently been shown to exhibit advanced reasoning skills but much of NLP evaluation still relies on static benchmarks. Answering this requires evaluation environments that probe strategic reasoning in competitive, dynamic scenarios that involve long-term planning. We introduce AucArena, a novel simulation environment for evaluating LLMs within auctions, a setting chosen for being highly unpredictable and involving many skills related to resource and risk management, while also being easy to evaluate. We conduct several controlled simulations using state-of-the-art LLMs as bidding agents. We find that through simple prompting, LLMs do indeed demonstrate many of the skills needed for effectively engaging in auctions (e.g., managing budget, adhering to long-term goals and priorities), skills that we find can be sharpened by explicitly encouraging models to be adaptive and observe strategies in past auctions. These results are significant as they show the potential of using LLM agents to model intricate social dynamics, especially in competitive settings. However, we also observe considerable variability in the capabilities of individual LLMs. Notably, even our most advanced models (GPT-4) are occasionally surpassed by heuristic baselines and human agents, highlighting the potential for further improvements in the design of LLM agents and the important role that our simulation environment can play in further testing and refining agent architectures.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 9, 2023

Experience-Guided Adaptation of Inference-Time Reasoning Strategies

Enabling agentic AI systems to adapt their problem-solving approaches based on post-training interactions remains a fundamental challenge. While systems that update and maintain a memory at inference time have been proposed, existing designs only steer the system by modifying textual input to a language model or agent, which means that they cannot change sampling parameters, remove tools, modify system prompts, or switch between agentic and workflow paradigms. On the other hand, systems that adapt more flexibly require offline optimization and remain static once deployed. We present Experience-Guided Reasoner (EGuR), which generates tailored strategies -- complete computational procedures involving LLM calls, tools, sampling parameters, and control logic -- dynamically at inference time based on accumulated experience. We achieve this using an LLM-based meta-strategy -- a strategy that outputs strategies -- enabling adaptation of all strategy components (prompts, sampling parameters, tool configurations, and control logic). EGuR operates through two components: a Guide generates multiple candidate strategies conditioned on the current problem and structured memory of past experiences, while a Consolidator integrates execution feedback to improve future strategy generation. This produces complete, ready-to-run strategies optimized for each problem, which can be cached, retrieved, and executed as needed without wasting resources. Across five challenging benchmarks (AIME 2025, 3-SAT, and three Big Bench Extra Hard tasks), EGuR achieves up to 14% accuracy improvements over the strongest baselines while reducing computational costs by up to 111x, with both metrics improving as the system gains experience.

Task-Specific Skill Localization in Fine-tuned Language Models

Pre-trained language models can be fine-tuned to solve diverse NLP tasks, including in few-shot settings. Thus fine-tuning allows the model to quickly pick up task-specific ``skills,'' but there has been limited study of where these newly-learnt skills reside inside the massive model. This paper introduces the term skill localization for this problem and proposes a solution. Given the downstream task and a model fine-tuned on that task, a simple optimization is used to identify a very small subset of parameters (sim0.01% of model parameters) responsible for (>95%) of the model's performance, in the sense that grafting the fine-tuned values for just this tiny subset onto the pre-trained model gives performance almost as well as the fine-tuned model. While reminiscent of recent works on parameter-efficient fine-tuning, the novel aspects here are that: (i) No further re-training is needed on the subset (unlike, say, with lottery tickets). (ii) Notable improvements are seen over vanilla fine-tuning with respect to calibration of predictions in-distribution (40-90% error reduction) as well as the quality of predictions out-of-distribution (OOD). In models trained on multiple tasks, a stronger notion of skill localization is observed, where the sparse regions corresponding to different tasks are almost disjoint, and their overlap (when it happens) is a proxy for task similarity. Experiments suggest that localization via grafting can assist certain forms of continual learning.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 13, 2023

ResumeFlow: An LLM-facilitated Pipeline for Personalized Resume Generation and Refinement

Crafting the ideal, job-specific resume is a challenging task for many job applicants, especially for early-career applicants. While it is highly recommended that applicants tailor their resume to the specific role they are applying for, manually tailoring resumes to job descriptions and role-specific requirements is often (1) extremely time-consuming, and (2) prone to human errors. Furthermore, performing such a tailoring step at scale while applying to several roles may result in a lack of quality of the edited resumes. To tackle this problem, in this demo paper, we propose ResumeFlow: a Large Language Model (LLM) aided tool that enables an end user to simply provide their detailed resume and the desired job posting, and obtain a personalized resume specifically tailored to that specific job posting in the matter of a few seconds. Our proposed pipeline leverages the language understanding and information extraction capabilities of state-of-the-art LLMs such as OpenAI's GPT-4 and Google's Gemini, in order to (1) extract details from a job description, (2) extract role-specific details from the user-provided resume, and then (3) use these to refine and generate a role-specific resume for the user. Our easy-to-use tool leverages the user-chosen LLM in a completely off-the-shelf manner, thus requiring no fine-tuning. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our tool via a video demo and propose novel task-specific evaluation metrics to control for alignment and hallucination. Our tool is available at https://job-aligned-resume.streamlit.app.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 9, 2024

Open-World Skill Discovery from Unsegmented Demonstrations

Learning skills in open-world environments is essential for developing agents capable of handling a variety of tasks by combining basic skills. Online demonstration videos are typically long but unsegmented, making them difficult to segment and label with skill identifiers. Unlike existing methods that rely on sequence sampling or human labeling, we have developed a self-supervised learning-based approach to segment these long videos into a series of semantic-aware and skill-consistent segments. Drawing inspiration from human cognitive event segmentation theory, we introduce Skill Boundary Detection (SBD), an annotation-free temporal video segmentation algorithm. SBD detects skill boundaries in a video by leveraging prediction errors from a pretrained unconditional action-prediction model. This approach is based on the assumption that a significant increase in prediction error indicates a shift in the skill being executed. We evaluated our method in Minecraft, a rich open-world simulator with extensive gameplay videos available online. Our SBD-generated segments improved the average performance of conditioned policies by 63.7% and 52.1% on short-term atomic skill tasks, and their corresponding hierarchical agents by 11.3% and 20.8% on long-horizon tasks. Our method can leverage the diverse YouTube videos to train instruction-following agents. The project page can be found in https://craftjarvis.github.io/SkillDiscovery.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 11 3

Skill Expansion and Composition in Parameter Space

Humans excel at reusing prior knowledge to address new challenges and developing skills while solving problems. This paradigm becomes increasingly popular in the development of autonomous agents, as it develops systems that can self-evolve in response to new challenges like human beings. However, previous methods suffer from limited training efficiency when expanding new skills and fail to fully leverage prior knowledge to facilitate new task learning. In this paper, we propose Parametric Skill Expansion and Composition (PSEC), a new framework designed to iteratively evolve the agents' capabilities and efficiently address new challenges by maintaining a manageable skill library. This library can progressively integrate skill primitives as plug-and-play Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) modules in parameter-efficient finetuning, facilitating efficient and flexible skill expansion. This structure also enables the direct skill compositions in parameter space by merging LoRA modules that encode different skills, leveraging shared information across skills to effectively program new skills. Based on this, we propose a context-aware module to dynamically activate different skills to collaboratively handle new tasks. Empowering diverse applications including multi-objective composition, dynamics shift, and continual policy shift, the results on D4RL, DSRL benchmarks, and the DeepMind Control Suite show that PSEC exhibits superior capacity to leverage prior knowledge to efficiently tackle new challenges, as well as expand its skill libraries to evolve the capabilities. Project website: https://ltlhuuu.github.io/PSEC/.

  • 7 authors
·
Feb 9 3

SMART: Self-learning Meta-strategy Agent for Reasoning Tasks

Tasks requiring deductive reasoning, especially those involving multiple steps, often demand adaptive strategies such as intermediate generation of rationales or programs, as no single approach is universally optimal. While Language Models (LMs) can enhance their outputs through iterative self-refinement and strategy adjustments, they frequently fail to apply the most effective strategy in their first attempt. This inefficiency raises the question: Can LMs learn to select the optimal strategy in the first attempt, without a need for refinement? To address this challenge, we introduce SMART (Self-learning Meta-strategy Agent for Reasoning Tasks), a novel framework that enables LMs to autonomously learn and select the most effective strategies for various reasoning tasks. We model the strategy selection process as a Markov Decision Process and leverage reinforcement learning-driven continuous self-improvement to allow the model to find the suitable strategy to solve a given task. Unlike traditional self-refinement methods that rely on multiple inference passes or external feedback, SMART allows an LM to internalize the outcomes of its own reasoning processes and adjust its strategy accordingly, aiming for correct solutions on the first attempt. Our experiments across various reasoning datasets and with different model architectures demonstrate that SMART significantly enhances the ability of models to choose optimal strategies without external guidance (+15 points on the GSM8K dataset). By achieving higher accuracy with a single inference pass, SMART not only improves performance but also reduces computational costs for refinement-based strategies, paving the way for more efficient and intelligent reasoning in LMs.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 21, 2024

Future of Work with AI Agents: Auditing Automation and Augmentation Potential across the U.S. Workforce

The rapid rise of compound AI systems (a.k.a., AI agents) is reshaping the labor market, raising concerns about job displacement, diminished human agency, and overreliance on automation. Yet, we lack a systematic understanding of the evolving landscape. In this paper, we address this gap by introducing a novel auditing framework to assess which occupational tasks workers want AI agents to automate or augment, and how those desires align with the current technological capabilities. Our framework features an audio-enhanced mini-interview to capture nuanced worker desires and introduces the Human Agency Scale (HAS) as a shared language to quantify the preferred level of human involvement. Using this framework, we construct the WORKBank database, building on the U.S. Department of Labor's O*NET database, to capture preferences from 1,500 domain workers and capability assessments from AI experts across over 844 tasks spanning 104 occupations. Jointly considering the desire and technological capability divides tasks in WORKBank into four zones: Automation "Green Light" Zone, Automation "Red Light" Zone, R&D Opportunity Zone, Low Priority Zone. This highlights critical mismatches and opportunities for AI agent development. Moving beyond a simple automate-or-not dichotomy, our results reveal diverse HAS profiles across occupations, reflecting heterogeneous expectations for human involvement. Moreover, our study offers early signals of how AI agent integration may reshape the core human competencies, shifting from information-focused skills to interpersonal ones. These findings underscore the importance of aligning AI agent development with human desires and preparing workers for evolving workplace dynamics.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 6

Society of Mind Meets Real-Time Strategy: A Hierarchical Multi-Agent Framework for Strategic Reasoning

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated impressive action sequence prediction capabilities but often struggle with dynamic, long-horizon tasks such as real-time strategic games. In a game such as StarCraftII (SC2), agents need to manage resource constraints and adapt to evolving battlefield situations in a partially observable environment. This often overwhelms exisiting LLM-based approaches. To address these challenges, we propose a hierarchical multi-agent framework that employs specialized imitation learning agents under a meta-controller called Strategic Planner (SP). By expert demonstrations, each specialized agent learns a distinctive strategy, such as aerial support or defensive maneuvers, and produces coherent, structured multistep action sequences. The SP then orchestrates these proposals into a single, environmentally adaptive plan that ensures local decisions aligning with long-term strategies. We call this HIMA (Hierarchical Imitation Multi-Agent). We also present TEXTSCII-ALL, a comprehensive SC2 testbed that encompasses all race match combinations in SC2. Our empirical results show that HIMA outperforms state of the arts in strategic clarity, adaptability, and computational efficiency, underscoring the potential of combining specialized imitation modules with meta-level orchestration to develop more robust, general-purpose AI agents.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 8

MASTER: A Multi-Agent System with LLM Specialized MCTS

Large Language Models (LLM) are increasingly being explored for problem-solving tasks. However, their strategic planning capability is often viewed with skepticism. Recent studies have incorporated the Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithm to augment the planning capacity of LLM. Despite its potential, MCTS relies on extensive sampling simulations to approximate the true reward distribution, which leads to two primary issues. Firstly, MCTS is effective for tasks like the Game of Go, where simulation results can yield objective rewards (e.g., 1 for a win and 0 for a loss). However, for tasks such as question answering, the result of a simulation is the answer to the question, which cannot yield an objective reward without the ground truth. Secondly, obtaining statistically significant reward estimations typically requires a sample size exceeding 30 simulations, resulting in excessive token usage and time consumption. To address these challenges, we present the Multi-Agent System with Tactical Execution and Reasoning using LLM Specialized MCTS (MASTER), a novel framework that coordinates agent recruitment and communication through LLM specialized MCTS. This system autonomously adjusts the number of agents based on task complexity and ensures focused communication among them. Comprehensive experiments across various tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed framework. It achieves 76% accuracy on HotpotQA and 80% on WebShop, setting new state-of-the-art performance on these datasets.

  • 8 authors
·
Jan 24 2

TACTIC: Translation Agents with Cognitive-Theoretic Interactive Collaboration

Machine translation has long been a central task in natural language processing. With the rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs), there has been remarkable progress in translation quality. However, fully realizing the translation potential of LLMs remains an open challenge. Recent studies have explored multi-agent systems to decompose complex translation tasks into collaborative subtasks, showing initial promise in enhancing translation quality through agent cooperation and specialization. Nevertheless, existing multi-agent translation frameworks largely neglect foundational insights from cognitive translation studies. These insights emphasize how human translators employ different cognitive strategies, such as balancing literal and free translation, refining expressions based on context, and iteratively evaluating outputs. To address this limitation, we propose a cognitively informed multi-agent framework called TACTIC, which stands for T ranslation A gents with Cognitive- T heoretic Interactive Collaboration. The framework comprises six functionally distinct agents that mirror key cognitive processes observed in human translation behavior. These include agents for drafting, refinement, evaluation, scoring, context reasoning, and external knowledge gathering. By simulating an interactive and theory-grounded translation workflow, TACTIC effectively leverages the full capacity of LLMs for high-quality translation. Experimental results on diverse language pairs from the FLORES-200 and WMT24 benchmarks show that our method consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance. Using DeepSeek-V3 as the base model, TACTIC surpasses GPT-4.1 by an average of +0.6 XCOMET and +1.18 COMETKIWI-23. Compared to DeepSeek-R1, it further improves by +0.84 XCOMET and +2.99 COMETKIWI-23. Code is available at https://github.com/weiyali126/TACTIC.

  • 16 authors
·
Jun 9

Xiangqi-R1: Enhancing Spatial Strategic Reasoning in LLMs for Chinese Chess via Reinforcement Learning

Game playing has long served as a fundamental benchmark for evaluating Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in general reasoning, their effectiveness in spatial strategic reasoning, which is critical for complex and fully observable board games, remains insufficiently explored. In this work, we adopt Chinese Chess (Xiangqi) as a challenging and rich testbed due to its intricate rules and spatial complexity. To advance LLMs' strategic competence in such environments, we propose a training framework tailored to Xiangqi, built upon a large-scale dataset of five million board-move pairs enhanced with expert annotations and engine evaluations. Building on this foundation, we introduce Xiangqi-R1, a 7B-parameter model trained in multi-stage manner: (1) fine-tuning for legal move prediction to capture basic spatial rules, (2) incorporating strategic annotations to improve decision-making, and (3) applying reinforcement learning via Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) with multi-dimensional reward signals to enhance reasoning stability. Our Experimental results indicate that, despite their size and power, general-purpose LLMs struggle to achieve satisfactory performance in these tasks. Compared to general-purpose LLMs, Xiangqi-R1 greatly advances with an 18% rise in move legality and a 22% boost in analysis accuracy. Our results point to a promising path for creating general strategic intelligence in spatially complex areas.

  • 6 authors
·
Jul 16

SkillMimic: Learning Reusable Basketball Skills from Demonstrations

Mastering basketball skills such as diverse layups and dribbling involves complex interactions with the ball and requires real-time adjustments. Traditional reinforcement learning methods for interaction skills rely on labor-intensive, manually designed rewards that do not generalize well across different skills. Inspired by how humans learn from demonstrations, we propose SkillMimic, a data-driven approach that mimics both human and ball motions to learn a wide variety of basketball skills. SkillMimic employs a unified configuration to learn diverse skills from human-ball motion datasets, with skill diversity and generalization improving as the dataset grows. This approach allows training a single policy to learn multiple skills, enabling smooth skill switching even if these switches are not present in the reference dataset. The skills acquired by SkillMimic can be easily reused by a high-level controller to accomplish complex basketball tasks. To evaluate our approach, we introduce two basketball datasets: one estimated through monocular RGB videos and the other using advanced motion capture equipment, collectively containing about 35 minutes of diverse basketball skills. Experiments show that our method can effectively learn various basketball skills included in the dataset with a unified configuration, including various styles of dribbling, layups, and shooting. Furthermore, by training a high-level controller to reuse the acquired skills, we can achieve complex basketball tasks such as layup scoring, which involves dribbling toward the basket, timing the dribble and layup to score, retrieving the rebound, and repeating the process. The project page and video demonstrations are available at https://ingrid789.github.io/SkillMimic/

  • 13 authors
·
Aug 12, 2024

Labor Space: A Unifying Representation of the Labor Market via Large Language Models

The labor market is a complex ecosystem comprising diverse, interconnected entities, such as industries, occupations, skills, and firms. Due to the lack of a systematic method to map these heterogeneous entities together, each entity has been analyzed in isolation or only through pairwise relationships, inhibiting comprehensive understanding of the whole ecosystem. Here, we introduce Labor Space, a vector-space embedding of heterogeneous labor market entities, derived through applying a large language model with fine-tuning. Labor Space exposes the complex relational fabric of various labor market constituents, facilitating coherent integrative analysis of industries, occupations, skills, and firms, while retaining type-specific clustering. We demonstrate its unprecedented analytical capacities, including positioning heterogeneous entities on an economic axes, such as `Manufacturing--Healthcare'. Furthermore, by allowing vector arithmetic of these entities, Labor Space enables the exploration of complex inter-unit relations, and subsequently the estimation of the ramifications of economic shocks on individual units and their ripple effect across the labor market. We posit that Labor Space provides policymakers and business leaders with a comprehensive unifying framework for labor market analysis and simulation, fostering more nuanced and effective strategic decision-making.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 9, 2023

SPIN-Bench: How Well Do LLMs Plan Strategically and Reason Socially?

Reasoning and strategic behavior in social interactions is a hallmark of intelligence. This form of reasoning is significantly more sophisticated than isolated planning or reasoning tasks in static settings (e.g., math problem solving). In this paper, we present Strategic Planning, Interaction, and Negotiation (SPIN-Bench), a new multi-domain evaluation designed to measure the intelligence of strategic planning and social reasoning. While many existing benchmarks focus on narrow planning or single-agent reasoning, SPIN-Bench combines classical PDDL tasks, competitive board games, cooperative card games, and multi-agent negotiation scenarios in one unified framework. The framework includes both a benchmark as well as an arena to simulate and evaluate the variety of social settings to test reasoning and strategic behavior of AI agents. We formulate the benchmark SPIN-Bench by systematically varying action spaces, state complexity, and the number of interacting agents to simulate a variety of social settings where success depends on not only methodical and step-wise decision making, but also conceptual inference of other (adversarial or cooperative) participants. Our experiments reveal that while contemporary LLMs handle basic fact retrieval and short-range planning reasonably well, they encounter significant performance bottlenecks in tasks requiring deep multi-hop reasoning over large state spaces and socially adept coordination under uncertainty. We envision SPIN-Bench as a catalyst for future research on robust multi-agent planning, social reasoning, and human--AI teaming.

  • 8 authors
·
Mar 16 3

MobileSteward: Integrating Multiple App-Oriented Agents with Self-Evolution to Automate Cross-App Instructions

Mobile phone agents can assist people in automating daily tasks on their phones, which have emerged as a pivotal research spotlight. However, existing procedure-oriented agents struggle with cross-app instructions, due to the following challenges: (1) complex task relationships, (2) diverse app environment, and (3) error propagation and information loss in multi-step execution. Drawing inspiration from object-oriented programming principles, we recognize that object-oriented solutions is more suitable for cross-app instruction. To address these challenges, we propose a self-evolving multi-agent framework named MobileSteward, which integrates multiple app-oriented StaffAgents coordinated by a centralized StewardAgent. We design three specialized modules in MobileSteward: (1) Dynamic Recruitment generates a scheduling graph guided by information flow to explicitly associate tasks among apps. (2) Assigned Execution assigns the task to app-oriented StaffAgents, each equipped with app-specialized expertise to address the diversity between apps. (3) Adjusted Evaluation conducts evaluation to provide reflection tips or deliver key information, which alleviates error propagation and information loss during multi-step execution. To continuously improve the performance of MobileSteward, we develop a Memory-based Self-evolution mechanism, which summarizes the experience from successful execution, to improve the performance of MobileSteward. We establish the first English Cross-APP Benchmark (CAPBench) in the real-world environment to evaluate the agents' capabilities of solving complex cross-app instructions. Experimental results demonstrate that MobileSteward achieves the best performance compared to both single-agent and multi-agent frameworks, highlighting the superiority of MobileSteward in better handling user instructions with diverse complexity.

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 23

OWL: Optimized Workforce Learning for General Multi-Agent Assistance in Real-World Task Automation

Large Language Model (LLM)-based multi-agent systems show promise for automating real-world tasks but struggle to transfer across domains due to their domain-specific nature. Current approaches face two critical shortcomings: they require complete architectural redesign and full retraining of all components when applied to new domains. We introduce Workforce, a hierarchical multi-agent framework that decouples strategic planning from specialized execution through a modular architecture comprising: (i) a domain-agnostic Planner for task decomposition, (ii) a Coordinator for subtask management, and (iii) specialized Workers with domain-specific tool-calling capabilities. This decoupling enables cross-domain transferability during both inference and training phases: During inference, Workforce seamlessly adapts to new domains by adding or modifying worker agents; For training, we introduce Optimized Workforce Learning (OWL), which improves generalization across domains by optimizing a domain-agnostic planner with reinforcement learning from real-world feedback. To validate our approach, we evaluate Workforce on the GAIA benchmark, covering various realistic, multi-domain agentic tasks. Experimental results demonstrate Workforce achieves open-source state-of-the-art performance (69.70%), outperforming commercial systems like OpenAI's Deep Research by 2.34%. More notably, our OWL-trained 32B model achieves 52.73% accuracy (+16.37%) and demonstrates performance comparable to GPT-4o on challenging tasks. To summarize, by enabling scalable generalization and modular domain transfer, our work establishes a foundation for the next generation of general-purpose AI assistants.

  • 16 authors
·
May 29

Learning to Match Jobs with Resumes from Sparse Interaction Data using Multi-View Co-Teaching Network

With the ever-increasing growth of online recruitment data, job-resume matching has become an important task to automatically match jobs with suitable resumes. This task is typically casted as a supervised text matching problem. Supervised learning is powerful when the labeled data is sufficient. However, on online recruitment platforms, job-resume interaction data is sparse and noisy, which affects the performance of job-resume match algorithms. To alleviate these problems, in this paper, we propose a novel multi-view co-teaching network from sparse interaction data for job-resume matching. Our network consists of two major components, namely text-based matching model and relation-based matching model. The two parts capture semantic compatibility in two different views, and complement each other. In order to address the challenges from sparse and noisy data, we design two specific strategies to combine the two components. First, two components share the learned parameters or representations, so that the original representations of each component can be enhanced. More importantly, we adopt a co-teaching mechanism to reduce the influence of noise in training data. The core idea is to let the two components help each other by selecting more reliable training instances. The two strategies focus on representation enhancement and data enhancement, respectively. Compared with pure text-based matching models, the proposed approach is able to learn better data representations from limited or even sparse interaction data, which is more resistible to noise in training data. Experiment results have demonstrated that our model is able to outperform state-of-the-art methods for job-resume matching.

  • 8 authors
·
Sep 24, 2020

Beating the average: how to generate profit by exploiting the inefficiencies of soccer betting

In economy, markets are denoted as efficient when it is impossible to systematically generate profits which outperform the average. In the past years, the concept has been tested in other domains such as the growing sports betting market. Surprisingly, despite its large size and its level of maturity, sports betting shows traits of inefficiency. The anomalies indicate the existence of strategies which shift betting from a game of chance towards a game of skill. This article shows an example for an inefficiency detected in the German soccer betting TOTO 13er Wette, which is operated by state-run lottery agencies. Gamblers have to guess the outcome (win, draw, loss) of 13 soccer matches listed on a lottery tip. Applying stochastic methods, a recipe is presented to determine hit rates for single match outcomes. More important, the recipe provides the number of lottery tips required to achieve a specific number of strikes (number of correct match forecasts per lottery tip) for any given level of safety. An approximation is derived to cope with large numbers in hypergeometric distributions, valid under certain constraints. Overall, the strategy does lead to returns exceeding the aggregated lottery fees, resulting in moderate, but consistent profits. It is briefly discussed if lessions learned from soccer betting can be transferred back to financial markets, because gamblers and retail investors face similar challenges and opportunities.

  • 1 authors
·
Mar 12, 2023

Making, not Taking, the Best of N

Obtaining high-quality generations in modern LLMs has largely been framed as a selection problem: identifying a single winning generation from a diverse pool of N samples, the Best-of-N (BoN). Yet, this approach is inherently zero-sum, discarding diverse and potentially useful information from the pool. Instead, we explore a collaborative setup, where all candidates can potentially contribute to the final winning generation. To this end, we propose Fusion-of-N (FusioN): a method that uses a general LLM judge to synthesize the most informative elements of each sample into a single final answer. We compare FusioN to BoN in two settings, (i) test-time scaling, where we sample and aggregate from a single model at test-time (ii) synthetic data generation, where we fuse samples from a pool of diverse teachers to improve a student model. We extensively benchmark both setups across 11 languages, 3 diverse tasks and varying model scales. Across the bench, FusioN consistently outperforms BoN showing versatility and robustness both in test-time scaling and in downstream gains from synthetic data generation. We also perform extensive analysis on FusioN, where it shows surprising strengths and robustness under challenging settings. These results show that we should shift how we think about evaluating and utilizing LLM generations from a monolithic measure of quality, to embracing their polylithic nature. This shift allows us to integrate diverse strengths, unlock latent potential, and achieve improvements that were previously inaccessible through selection alone.

CohereLabs Cohere Labs
·
Oct 1 2

SWE-Search: Enhancing Software Agents with Monte Carlo Tree Search and Iterative Refinement

Software engineers operating in complex and dynamic environments must continuously adapt to evolving requirements, learn iteratively from experience, and reconsider their approaches based on new insights. However, current large language model (LLM)-based software agents often rely on rigid processes and tend to repeat ineffective actions without the capacity to evaluate their performance or adapt their strategies over time. To address these challenges, we propose SWE-Search, a multi-agent framework that integrates Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) with a self-improvement mechanism to enhance software agents' performance on repository-level software tasks. SWE-Search extends traditional MCTS by incorporating a hybrid value function that leverages LLMs for both numerical value estimation and qualitative evaluation. This enables self-feedback loops where agents iteratively refine their strategies based on both quantitative numerical evaluations and qualitative natural language assessments of pursued trajectories. The framework includes a SWE-Agent for adaptive exploration, a Value Agent for iterative feedback, and a Discriminator Agent that facilitates multi-agent debate for collaborative decision-making. Applied to the SWE-bench benchmark, our approach demonstrates a 23% relative improvement in performance across five models compared to standard open-source agents without MCTS. Our analysis reveals how performance scales with increased search depth and identifies key factors that facilitate effective self-evaluation in software agents. This work highlights the potential of self-evaluation driven search techniques to enhance agent reasoning and planning in complex, dynamic software engineering environments.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 26, 2024

Adapt-infty: Scalable Lifelong Multimodal Instruction Tuning via Dynamic Data Selection

Visual instruction datasets from various distributors are released at different times and often contain a significant number of semantically redundant text-image pairs, depending on their task compositions (i.e., skills) or reference sources. This redundancy greatly limits the efficient deployment of lifelong adaptable multimodal large language models, hindering their ability to refine existing skills and acquire new competencies over time. To address this, we reframe the problem of Lifelong Instruction Tuning (LiIT) via data selection, where the model automatically selects beneficial samples to learn from earlier and new datasets based on the current state of acquired knowledge in the model. Based on empirical analyses that show that selecting the best data subset using a static importance measure is often ineffective for multi-task datasets with evolving distributions, we propose Adapt-infty, a new multi-way and adaptive data selection approach that dynamically balances sample efficiency and effectiveness during LiIT. We construct pseudo-skill clusters by grouping gradient-based sample vectors. Next, we select the best-performing data selector for each skill cluster from a pool of selector experts, including our newly proposed scoring function, Image Grounding score. This data selector samples a subset of the most important samples from each skill cluster for training. To prevent the continuous increase in the size of the dataset pool during LiIT, which would result in excessive computation, we further introduce a cluster-wise permanent data pruning strategy to remove the most semantically redundant samples from each cluster, keeping computational requirements manageable. Training with samples selected by Adapt-infty alleviates catastrophic forgetting, especially for rare tasks, and promotes forward transfer across the continuum using only a fraction of the original datasets.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 14, 2024

Improving Interpersonal Communication by Simulating Audiences with Language Models

How do we communicate with others to achieve our goals? We use our prior experience or advice from others, or construct a candidate utterance by predicting how it will be received. However, our experiences are limited and biased, and reasoning about potential outcomes can be difficult and cognitively challenging. In this paper, we explore how we can leverage Large Language Model (LLM) simulations to help us communicate better. We propose the Explore-Generate-Simulate (EGS) framework, which takes as input any scenario where an individual is communicating to an audience with a goal they want to achieve. EGS (1) explores the solution space by producing a diverse set of advice relevant to the scenario, (2) generates communication candidates conditioned on subsets of the advice, and (3) simulates the reactions from various audiences to determine both the best candidate and advice to use. We evaluate the framework on eight scenarios spanning the ten fundamental processes of interpersonal communication. For each scenario, we collect a dataset of human evaluations across candidates and baselines, and showcase that our framework's chosen candidate is preferred over popular generation mechanisms including Chain-of-Thought. We also find that audience simulations achieve reasonably high agreement with human raters across 5 of the 8 scenarios. Finally, we demonstrate the generality of our framework by applying it to real-world scenarios described by users on web forums. Through evaluations and demonstrations, we show that EGS enhances the effectiveness and outcomes of goal-oriented communication across a variety of situations, thus opening up new possibilities for the application of large language models in revolutionizing communication and decision-making processes.

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 1, 2023